For everyone at BYU, there is one thing that is joked about and talked about more than anything else (save the Gospel and Church). Sadly, it is not what we can do to rid ourselves of today's social problems. It is not starcraft. It is not sports. And no, it is not zombies (but you were thinking it weren't you? Yes. you were). Its marriage and dating.
I read through a word document I had written down a awhile ago (because really, I have nothing else to do with my life besides listening to Lights). January 26th, 2009 to be precise. The previous day in church our high councilor had made a very interesting remark. It went like this, "20% of the girls at BYU get 90% of the dates on campus". Surprising? Possibly, but from everyone I've talked to, its actually believable. I approached my sociology teachers about this, and one of them said she'd round up some numbers to see if this accurate. I'm not sure how much sociologists would know about this stuff, but hey, they deal with people and numbers right?
But before we jump to conclusions we shall apply what we've learned in statistics (oh how I love thee) to real life because after all, what else is statistics good for? If there's one thing we all should have learned in statistics, its this: statistics can lie. And in this case, they are, at the least, deceiving. I should have asked the high councilor where he got his information, but I didn't. sorry.
First, there are about 33,000 students on campus (32,995 to be exact according to this). We'll just assume for now that half is female and half is male. Making, 16,500 males and 16500 females. The numbers straight up mean that 3300 girls are garnering 90% of the dates. Do you see a potential follow-up question here? It might go something like this, "well...how many dates are actually going around?" Assuming EVERY guy is going on one date a month, it would mean, 3300 girls are receiving 14,850 dates a month out of a possible 16,500 dates. That's 4.5 dates a month per girl. If every guy is going out three times a month, the number jumps to 44,550 dates and 13.5 dates per girl in the 20% category. And from what I know, there are girls receiving that many per month.
Of course, there's a flaw there. I mean, its blindingly obvious. Not every boy goes on one date per month, much less three. The statistic given us could be vastly misleading. Consider this what if only 20% of guys are actually going on dates (we'll assume once a month to for simplicity sake)? That means there are only 3300 dates per month, and 20% of the girls on campus are receiving 2970 dates. The other 330 dates are being divided between the other 13,200 girls on campus. See how one statistic can reveal different things?
One last thing with the numbers. There are more married men on campus than married women. So even though there are more guys than girls, there is an uneven percentage of single girls to single guys.
So what does this all mean? Well....first. Whatever the actual numbers are, it is still horribly skewed toward those 3300 females on campus. That means, either guys need to do better in asking a larger variety of girls or more guys need to go on dates. If every guy went on three dates a month with a different girl, every girl on campus could go on one a date month. EVERY girl. I can say that I've done a better job with that. I've dated the girls who haven't been asked as much as well as the girls that go on dozens of dates (even though it feels like the girls who go on a lot of dates actually seem to enjoy it more, but that's another story).
But here's a bonus. I have some actual hard facts. Haha, yes of course. you didn't think I'd just spout off numbers without some hardcore evidence did you? My class and I have actually collected some data together. Out of 91 males surveyed, 21 say they either don't date or have gone on an average of 0 dates a month. That's about 23%. But the rest on average are in the 1-6 dates a month range (39 in 1-3 dates/month, and 20 in the 4-6 range). So what does it look like for the girls? Well, the data there is a little incomplete because we had a lot more girls who didn't answer that question and there are actually a lot more girls surveyed, but even comparably we see slight differences. For example... 31% of the first 91 girls surveyed either didn't date or had zero dates on average. Is it statistically significant? Do i have enough knowledge to run a test that will prove so? How did the dinosaurs die? The answers to those three questions are all the same. I don't now. I can say though that the girls' graph seems way more varied than the guys' graph (which looks more like a normal distribution).
So does the statistics hold up? Not really. As far as I was able to tell, its more like 19% of the girls at BYU get 67% of the possible dates on campus. Which is actually still very skewed. but those are very rough numbers. Still, bottom line, if we were to take anything from this, its that its still very skewed. So...there ya go.
Anyway. I think I want to stop doing numbers now. I hope that provided some sort of information, or entertainment, for now.
I'm loving this, Steven! Fantastic analysis, and I'm a huge fan of real data, so thanks for that as well.
ReplyDeleteHere's something else to consider regarding this 20/90 phenomenon.
Typically everyone assumes that it's the pretty or outgoing girls that are getting asked out. Which I agree with.
But it's not that every guy on campus is asking them out - only the guys that are equally yoked are asking those girls out. Guys that feel comfortable around them, that are similar in some sense, that may be equally as attractive or outgoing.
Therefore, it is my guess that this number goes both ways - that only 20% of the guys are asking girls out! And those guys will, of course, ask out girls they are attracted to and fee comfortable with.
It takes a great deal of confidence (or at least resiliency) to ask a girl out, so the guys that are less confident, who WOULD ask out the less outgoing girls, just aren't asking ANYONE out!
And that's why those girls aren't getting asked out. Not because they're not pretty enough, etc., but because the men that are on the same plane as them aren't asking girls out at all. Booyah.